If you stand in the middle of the road, you will get run over by a truck—Margaret Thatcher
The once-largest political party in Africa is now controlled by Wike. A man who has pledged support for Tinubu in the 2027 general elections. This means every PDP flagbearer, the Governor, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the House of Assembly under the PDP will implicitly or explicitly endorse Tinubu as their presidential candidate for 2027.
But that is just one problem. The leadership will elect a Congress in March 2026, which will serve a four-year term, meaning they will manage the party until March 2030 and have influence over the selection of the presidential candidate in 2030. Should Wike decide to contest under the PDP in 2031, it would be a strategic position for him to argue that power should shift to the old Eastern region (South-South and South-East), instead of the northern region.
I do not know what every Nigerian believes, but I doubt Wike’s proposal will be popular in most parts of the North. Even if the southerners accept that power should remain with them in 2031, the northern contestants will not be favoured under this agreement. The biggest losers will be northern PDP contestants because the electorate will not accept this. This is one of the unintended consequences borne by our party leaders who supported Wike’s faction to hijack the PDP. Although some claimed they were neutral in the fight, this makes them more complicit.
But let us focus on 2027. We must recognise that most voters are more focused on the presidential election. Voting for senatorial or House of Representatives candidates is secondary. There are those who support the ruling party and those who want to vote it out. Those who are undecided are in the minority. This is a problem for the PDP candidates because they are left in the middle, partially supporting Tinubu under the APC and campaigning for their seats under the PDP.
Those supporting Tinubu will find it easier to vote for the APC and all other candidates they field on the ballot. The APC structure will use the APC candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives to canvass votes for the President and, by default, for themselves. We all know the top-to-bottom model, and it is much easier to adopt in this scenario. It will be difficult for voters to consider a PDP candidate in this case.
For example, it will be easier for party agents to persuade voters on election day to vote in one direction. We must remember that these party agents will work as a team for all candidates—President, Senator, and House of Representative. Likewise for the Governor and the House of Assembly. One would imagine how a PDP agent will join the canvassing argument knowing that the ruling party’s candidates are representing the president. It is a straight loss for them.
Conversely, those wanting to vote out Tinubu will do so in a unified manner. It will be easier for them to vote for a party that does not align with the APC. They will prefer to vote for a political party whose presidential and other candidates can remove the ruling party. Therefore, their voting pattern will attempt to kill two birds with one stone. Preferably, a top-to-bottom approach. This also creates a problem for PDP candidates, because they will not be in a position to appeal to the voters who do not support Tinubu. PDP candidates can only highlight their own self-interests, as they cannot oppose the ruling party because their party leaders openly support Tinubu. They would make every effort to avoid voter frustration with the ruling party, because doing so would contradict their party’s position.
Again, standing in the middle will make the PDP candidates lose the elections. But does the party leadership care? No, they do not. We must recall that Wike and the present leadership have vowed to support Tinubu, and anyone is collateral.
This brings us back to the Governors who left the PDP. No need to argue about them jumping ship after contributing to the party troubles. Some jumped ship much earlier because they realised that it is a waste of time to stand in the middle of the road, or to put it bluntly, to be at the mercy of Wike. They know the politics is clearly in black-and-white. Joining the APC gives them direct access to Tinubu, and they have decided on the side to take.
Since the rumour broke out that Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State was joining the APC, one cannot help but think as he was thought. It is irrational to remain in an opposition party that colludes with the ruling party. Bala is only doing what all the others have done. They have chosen the less chaotic option. Many worry whether the electorate was consulted, but this would only be known at the general election in 2027.
The leadership remaining under Wike has been labelled as submissive and complicit in endorsing Tinubu, either directly or indirectly. Some argue that they stay to keep it alive. One wonders how they persuade themselves to think so by supporting the ruling party. They also push aspirants to contest for elective offices, asking them to invest their time and money in the general election, despite knowing it is a futile effort. In my opinion, this is grossly unfair.
There are areas where the ruling party is deeply unpopular, and the PDP has found itself in this undesired, compromised position. The party leaders in those localities should advise candidates to wait until 2031 or seek an alternative platform if they genuinely want to be competitive in 2027. This would be the most generous thing an elder could offer to their followers.
It would also be morally irresponsible for the PDP leadership to look down on aspirants who seek to join a formidable opposition party to challenge incumbents. They must recognise that politics is local, and if the electorate seeks a clear alternative to the incumbent, then contestants are justified in appealing to them in that way. Besides, we must begin to plan for the future today.
Yes, these suggestions may sound strong and ideological. But that is because of the position we find ourselves. We have never been in this situation before. But if we are genuinely concerned about our democracy and political parties, we must challenge Wike's position. Letting it succeed will bring forth a political monster that will be difficult to tame.